Monday, July 28, 2008

Analisis Data Statistik : WHAT IS ECONOMETRICS?

Literally interpreted, econometrics means “economic measurement.” Although measurement is an important part of econometrics, the scope of econometrics is much broader, as can be seen from the following quotations: Econometrics, the result of a certain outlook on the role of economics, consists of the application of mathematical statistics to economic data to lend empirical support to the models constructed by mathematical economics and to obtain numerical results.

Econometrics may be defined as the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference.

Econometrics may be defined as the social science in which the tools of economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic phenomena.
Econometrics is concerned with the empirical determination of economic laws.

The art of the econometrician consists in finding the set of assumptions that are both sufficiently specific and sufficiently realistic to allow him to take the best possible advantage of the data available to him.
Econometricians are a positive help in trying to dispel the poor public image of economics (quantitative or otherwise) as a subject in which empty boxes are opened by assuming the existence of can-openers to reveal contents which any ten economists will interpret in 11 ways.
The method of econometric research aims, essentially, at a conjunction of economic theory and actual measurements, using the theory and technique of statistical inference as a bridge pier.


How do econometricians proceed in their analysis of an economic problem?
That is, what is their methodology? Although there are several schools of thought on econometric methodology, we present here the traditional or classical methodology, which still dominates mpirical research in economics and other social and behavioral sciences.
Broadly speaking, traditional econometric methodology proceeds along the following lines:

1. Statement of theory or hypothesis.
2. Specification of the mathematical model of the theory
3. Specification of the statistical, or econometric, model
4. Obtaining the data
5. Estimation of the parameters of the econometric model
6. Hypothesis testing
7. Forecasting or prediction
8. Using the model for control or policy purposes.

For further information, please read a book: Basic Econometric 4th Ed. Gujarati.(2004)


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